From the inability of wealth to make us happier, to our catastrophic blindness to the credit crunch, Economyths reveals ten ways in which economics has failed us all. Forecasters predicted a prosperous year in 2008 for financial markets - in one influential survey the average prediction was for an eleven percent gain. But by the end of the year, the Standard and Poor's 500 index - a key economic barometer - was down 38 percent, and major economies were plunging into recession. Even the Queen asked - "Why did no one see it coming?" An even bigger casualty was the credibility of economics, which for decades has claimed that the economy is a rational, stable, efficient machine, governed by well-understood laws. Mathematician David Orrell traces the history of this idea from its roots in ancient Greece to the financial centres of London and New York, shows how it is mistaken, and proposes new alternatives. Economyths explains how the economy is the result of complex and unpredictable processes; how risk models go astray; why the economy is not rational or fair; why no woman has ever won the Nobel Prize for economics; why financial crashes are less Black Swans than part of the landscape; and finally, how new ideas in mathematics, psychology, and environmentalism are helping to reinvent economics.
Author
David Orrell, Ph.D. is a scientist and author of popular science books. He studied mathematics at the University of Alberta, and obtained his Ph.D. from Oxford University on the prediction of nonlinear systems. His work in mathematical modeling and complex systems research has led him to diverse areas such as weather forecasting, particle accelerator design, economics, and cancer biology. He has authored or coauthored research papers for journals including Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Nature Genetics, the International Journal of Bifurcations and Chaos, and Physica D. He is the author of Economyths and The Other Side of the Coin: The Emerging Vision of Economics and Our Place in The World about new economic theories; and The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction about prediction in weather, genetics, and economics, which was a national bestseller and finalist for the 2007 Canadian Science Writers' Association book award. Foresight called it "An engaging, as well as deeply insightful, discussion on the difficult task of prediction ... it can change the way you view forecasting." David has been a guest on radio shows including Coast to Coast AM, NPR, and BBC, and his work has been featured in print media such as New Scientist and the Financial Times. He has spoken at many conferences and events including the Art Center Global Dialogues on Disruptive Thinking. He currently lives in Oxford, UK, where he runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. Awards Finalist: Canadian Science Writers' Association book award (2007) Finalist: National Business Book Award (2011)
