Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

1996

Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

2005

Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting

2016

Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

2015

Unmaking the West

"What-If?" Scenarios That Rewrite World History

2006

What's Wrong with Expert Predictions?

2011